Comparative assessment and forecast of lagging economic growth of the North Caucasus macroregion: ARIMA model
Link for download: Comparative assessment and forecast of lagging economic growth of the North Caucasus macroregion: ARIMA model.docx
Authors: Nabiyula Sapiyulaevich Gichiev
Annotation: The article presents the main methods for forecasting the dynamics of economic growth; an ARIMA model with lagged variables normalized using the mean-based normalization method is built; a graph of the medium-term forecast of the economic growth rate of the North Caucasus Federal District is built.
Keywords: Arima, Gross regional product, Economic growth, Hysteresis, Time lag delay, Medium term forecast
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